Aviation
Commercial /
China
Cost of $1.47 trillion
Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new aircraft over the next 20 years, says Boeing
Boeing 787
China Southern
Scarbor Siu/Unsplash
Gabriela Ramos
9/23/2021
Betting on a rapid recovery from the coronavirus and the future growth of China's low-cost airline industry, Boeing on Thursday raised its forecast for the country's aircraft demand for the next 20 years.
In the previous forecast, made last year, the manufacturer predicted 8,600 aircraft. In the new forecast, there was a 1.2% increase: demand is now expected to be 8,700 new aircraft by 2040. Boeing said in a statement that these aircraft would cost $1.47 trillion based on list prices.
At the height of restrictions caused worldwide by the coronavirus, China appeared as a highlight in the aviation market, as this 1.2% increase contrasted with the 6.3% growth forecast by Boeing last year.
Due to a strong recovery in domestic commercial air travel in several countries, Boeing earlier this month revised long-term forecasts for global aircraft demand, throwing all forecasts up.
Richard Wynne, China's marketing director for Boeing's commercial arm, said, “There are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity. In the longer term, there is potential for the growth of low-cost carriers to further increase single-aisle demand.”
While the domestic aviation market in China is still vulnerable to sporadic local Covid-19 outbreaks, it has made a significant recovery to pre-pandemic levels. However, the country's borders remain virtually closed, with the number of international flights being just 2% of pre-coronavirus levels.
Boeing forecasts that nearly 6,500 new single-aisle aircraft will be needed over the next 20 years, while China's widebody fleet, including passenger and cargo models, will require 1,850 new aircraft, with 20% of total deliveries. The manufacturer also says China will need nearly $1.8 trillion in commercial services for its aircraft fleet over 20 years.
China currently answers a quarter of Boeing aircraft orders.
Air China
Markus Winkler/Unsplash
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Gabriela Ramos
Gabriela is the latest addition to the editorial team of our website, having provided us with her solid background in editing, publishing and photography, and her interest and training in aviation history and historiography. His good taste and common sense and great cleverness and sagacity in the selection of themes and materials greatly enriched our vocabulary and narrative style. Gabriela brought unusual predicates and came to stay, helping to point the way of success of our portal.
   
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